Few of Ron Paul’s enthusiastic supporters actually expect their curmudgeonly, 77-year-old champion to win election as President of the United States, but they nonetheless plan to give him their votes in Republican primaries in order “to send a message” to the GOP and the nation at large.
But what, exactly, is the message that impassioned Paulestinians mean to convey if, as expected, the controversial congressman places first or second in the upcoming Iowa caucuses and goes on to show surprising strength in subsequent contests?
Any honest assessment of Ron Paul’s unconventional campaign suggests that whatever successes it manages to achieve can send only two signals, both of them disastrous to Republican prospects and the conservative cause.
First, and most obviously, increased attention to the perplexing Paul phenomenon only serves to strengthen the core argument for Barack Obama’s reelection: that today’s Republicans have become a wild and crazy bunch, harboring oddball, irresponsible notions that place them far outside the American mainstream and make them untrustworthy when it comes to the serious business of governance.
Association with 9/11 conspiracy theorists has destroyed the credibility of numerous figures in public life – even forcing the resignation of Van Jones, perhaps the most loathsome left-wing loony in the Obama administration. But Ron Paul has flirted with such paranoid delusions for years, appearing regularly on the freakazoid radio show of arch-conspiracist Alex Jones (who accuses George Bush and the New World Order of planning the extinction of the human race) and telling one of his senior congressional aides (Eric Dondero) shortly after September 11 that “the attacks were coordinated with the CIA, and that the Bush administration might have known about the attacks ahead of time.”
When leading GOP strategists acknowledge that the Republicans can only build long-term success for their party by reaching out more successfully to blacks, Hispanics, and Jews, Dr. Paul reemphasised just a few weeks ago his opposition to the celebrated Civil Rights Act of 1964 (which most Republicans in Congress enthusiastically supported at the time).
Concerning more recent history, Paul’s former congressional aide and long-time campaign worker Eric Dondero recently wrote a piece for LibertarianRepublican.net in which he attempted to defend his former boss against charges of anti-Semitism and racism relating to his newsletters. But he frankly allowed that “Ron Paul is most assuredly an isolationist….I can tell you straight out, I had countless arguments/discussions with him over his personal views. For example, he strenuously does not believe the United States had any business getting involved in fighting Hitler in WWII…When pressed, he often brings up conspiracy theories like FDR knew about the attacks of Pearl Harbour weeks beforehand, or that WWII was just ‘blowback’ for Woodrow Wilson’s foreign policy errors, and such.”
Which brings us to the second poisonous message broadcast to the nation’s undecided voters by any and all scraps of Ronulan progress in the primary process: the notion that the Republican Party remains hopelessly divided, helpless to cope with its most oddly obsessed activists, and utterly unable to provide the unifying, competent leadership that most Americans crave. If, after gathering more notable support in caucuses and primaries across the country, Paul repeats this petulant performance in 2012, the impact on GOP chances in the general election could be catastrophic. He repeatedly insists he has no current intention of launching an independent candidacy but he also refuses to answer whenever questioned about his willingness to support the Republican ticket.
Unless he changes his tune and unabashedly embraces Romney, Gingrich, Perry, or whichever rival comes out of primary season with a majority of delegates, it’s inconceivable that convention organisers would grant him the high-profile, prime-time speaking slot he demands. How could GOP strategists possibly invite Dr. Demento to address the assembled delegates without some iron-clad assurance that he wouldn’t use the occasion to trash the party itself and its newly selected candidates?
It’s difficult, if not impossible, to imagine a reassuring “unity photo” from the Tampa convention showing Ron Paul joining the other also-rans lifting arms at the podium together with the victor who has beaten them. The more support angry voters provide to Paul protest candidacy the more inconceivable that image becomes, and the more likely the reelection of Obama and Biden.
By far the best outcome for those who yearn above all to replace the Democrat in the White House would be to witness the rapid, well-deserved fizzle of the Paulian insurgency. This sort of quick collapse remains a distinct possibility—with a disappointing showing in Iowa followed by even more limited support that polls presently predict in the other early primary states.
If Paul winds up with less than 10 per cent of the national Republican vote, he would merit only an obscure position at the convention, reassuring the broader public that if you refuse to disavow support from open Nazis and unrepentant Ku Kluxers—as Dr. Paul explicitly refuses to do, in interviews recently with The New York Times and four years ago on my radio show — you will find no comfortable home in today’s Republican Party.
Voters who might feel tempted to express discontent with the status quo by casting a ballot for Ron Paul during primary season still understand that backing him in any third party bid would bring disaster to the conservative cause; in the general election, it’s obvious that a vote for Ron Paul would amount to a vote for Barack Obama.
But even in caucuses and primaries, the prospective rise of “Paul Power” would cripple Republican chances for the climactic contest, conveying the impression of a GOP that nourishes angry extremists and remains painfully divided, headed toward crushing defeat at the hands of an unworthy foe in a fateful election that should have been winnable.
Newsweek
